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My 2024 Predictions and Insights
Simplifying emerging technology trends with Shira Lazar. Learn what matters in web3 and AI in under 3 minutes per week.
Shira Lazar
January 07, 2024
2024 Predictions
Hi friends,
Happy New Year! I’m excited to bring you this amazing compilation of my predictions with the help of leaders across these industries.
Looking ahead to 2024, we're set to witness significant developments in AI, NFTs, Web3, and the Creator Economy. While trying to keep up with it all, we will also be working to figure out how to better take care of ourselves and each other.
More on wellness and mental health in 2024 in next week’s newsletter.
For many, 2023 was a volatile year, full of turmoil, a harsh bear market, and uncertainty in the blockchain sector, along with the overwhelming AI boom and the world in conflict. 2024 may bring some stability across all of these sectors.
AI Predictions
Investments and the new job position:
While we saw the bubble start to burst on AI investments in 2023, investments in startups focusing on new ways of handling data and using AI (beyond building on top of ChatGPT) will increase. This is mainly because of the rise of Large Language Models (LLMs), which are changing how we use and understand data. As a result, venture capital is expected to flow into businesses (up to $220 billion!) that are good at using AI, believing they can change industry standards and improve customer experiences.
"Numerous Fortune 500 companies will establish a pivotal leadership role – the Chief AI Officer. AI has become a paramount concern for these enterprises, mirroring the past trend of Chief Cloud Officers during the cloud computing era. This movement will be further accelerated by a similar development in the government sector, with President Biden's mandate for every federal agency to appoint a Chief AI Officer, marking a significant step in signaling commitment to AI. However, its long-term impact remains uncertain, reminiscent of the fate of Chief Cloud Officers in the past."
“AI will be applied to email so we can all achieve inbox zero. It will read, sort, prioritize, and then summarize for us. Over time, it will recommend responses, and as it learns, we turn over email responses to the AI Agent.”
Regulation:
The U.S. will see more talks about how to regulate AI as Europe continues to make strides and we move towards an upcoming Presidential election, where deep fakes and fighting fake news will be top of mind. Beyond that, the focus will be on how to balance new innovations with ethical concerns and the impact of AI on society and work. This will be crucial in shaping the rules for how AI is developed and used.
Consumer Behavior:
AI will continue to become more seamlessly integrated into everyday life, transcending beyond complex algorithms.
Regarding consumer behavior, nearly 40% of all online searches are expected to be done using AI, especially in shopping. This means businesses need to adapt to AI to meet customer needs.
In the corporate world, AI will likely increase productivity, changing how businesses measure success. Even though this might mean companies hire fewer people, they could still make more money. This change points to the growing need for AI skills and flexibility in the workforce.
NFTs/ Web3
Growth, consolidation, and gaming:
Web3 and NFT sectors are set for substantial growth and innovation in the new year, with Bitcoin ETFs triggering more liquidity in the market.
The Web3 gaming industry is expected to see a significant increase in releases, including a rise in fully on-chain games. Major Web2 gaming companies will likely embrace Web3 technologies further, contributing to a predicted surge in the gaming token market cap to $40 billion.
"My prediction is a multi-chain year with new niches popping up. I think we will see more mergings of Rug Radio and Decrypt and potentially even see older abandoned projects renewed. I think a level of optimism will bring some fun back for people. I especially look forward to seeing more developments with AI in fashion and gaming.”
Additionally, more Web3-enhanced games are anticipated in major app stores, possibly integrating stablecoins as payment methods. In the stablecoin domain, volumes are projected to exceed those of Visa, with Solana expected to double its share of stablecoin transfer volume, indicating a notable shift in digital payments.
"After 10+ years of building infrastructure, the Web3 industry will start shifting its focus to Consumers, realizing that they need mass market DApps to run on all the tech that has been built to justify its existence and market value. As a result, Web3 will finally start reaching regular consumers by acting more like Web2. Consumer services will be fun, engaging, rewarding and easy to use, chains will work seamlessly and securely, transactions will be cheap and fast and ecosystems will all be connected, users won't even know they are using a service that's built on Web3 rails. Music will be the breakout consumer category to lead the way, creating billions of dollars of net new value for the industry."
Regulation:
Top of mind with the election coming up is the regulation of crypto, which inherently impacts the Web3 market. Voter concerns around inflation, particularly among younger demographics, are heightening the political relevance of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
A recent survey indicates that a substantial portion of voters are waiting for clearer crypto policies before investing, and many young voters consider candidates' crypto stances before voting.
Digital Fashion/ Metaverse
Fully immersive and customized experiences:
In 2024, digital fashion is set to be revolutionized by AI-powered personalization and immersive technologies.
AI algorithms will tailor fashion experiences to individual tastes, analyzing user data for personalized recommendations, while AR and VR technologies will enable consumers to try on clothes virtually, enhancing the online shopping experience.
The metaverse will further reshape digital fashion, allowing brands to create virtual storefronts and users to dress avatars in digital outfits, blurring the lines between physical and virtual fashion worlds. Digital collectibles like NFTs will also gain traction, offering unique and verifiable fashion items.
"Digital fashion is not about avatars wearing digital clothes in a metaverse. That will come, but it will still only be a sector of consumers. Digital fashion is the use of technology to advance the whole industry forward. Think about physical/digital hybrid photo shoots with greenscreen backdrops, virtual clothes superimposed onto real bodies, and even avatars as models; any component could be digitized to reduce cost and improve speed. Luxury products can be authenticated on the blockchain, and data is no longer owned by the last touch or advertisers, revolutionizing CRM. With AI-assisted design, any person or child can be the head of their own Maison with digital IP provenance. The fashion industry is poised for massive disruption in creativity, speed, and ownership."
New business models:
Emerging business models in the digital fashion industry, such as subscription services for virtual wardrobes and collaborative digital fashion marketplaces, will redefine consumer interaction.
At the same time, sustainability will become a key focus, with digital fashion offering eco-friendly alternatives to traditional fashion.
These advancements promise a future where tech and fashion seamlessly merge, offering innovative and sustainable style experiences.
Creator Economy
Sovereignty over dependence:
The Creator Economy hit a peak in 2023– many might say this bubble burst as funded startups failed to gain expected traction, and I’m looking forward to its soft landing in 2024.
Creators are shifting focus from revenue-driven content to sharing personal passions and real-life stories, embracing connections and cultivating a more community-centric approach.
There's also a trend towards long-term, meaningful partnerships between influencers and brands, with creators increasingly taking control of their own brands while moving away from reliance on management agencies.
Live shopping will continue to rise on TikTok and possibly other platforms, creating an opening for a new type of creator who specializes in selling at these social storefronts.
"Social video platforms have matured, and we'll see more battles over market share and top creators than innovative new features and capabilities. Creators will need to fend for themselves, but the good news here is that creators have more power than they think – and they will increasingly discover their influence extends beyond their community to brands, politics, and the world at large."
Everyone is a creator, so now what?
The Creator Economy is rapidly expanding, with over 200 million people identifying as content creators, many considering it a side hustle rather than a full-time job. While some can earn over $50k annually, most, especially YouTubers, make below the poverty line. The global influencer market has grown to $21 billion, but creators need help with issues like declining ad revenue and widespread use of ad blockers.
Despite these hurdles, the ambition to become influencers remains strong, particularly among American youth. Predictions for the Creator Economy to reach $480 billion by 2027 present a burgeoning yet competitive landscape for those in the digital content creation space.
"Creators will look for new ways to engage, reward, and evolve their communities — this is where blockchain infrastructure can unlock powerful experiences and commercial opportunities beyond what web2 platforms can ever offer. KIKI community commerce aims to offer the evolution of our experience online as empowered, autonomous participants in building a new world where community and commerce are seamlessly connected."
Niche communities and experiences:
Niche content is becoming more popular, with creators focusing on unique experiences and expertise to connect more genuinely with their audiences.
Despite Instagram remaining a key platform for influencer marketing, creators are seeking ways to connect with their followers beyond social media. Expect more focus on IRL experiences like group travel, events, and private messaging on WhatsApp or Telegram.
In an effort to connect more deeply and “own your community” off of social media, newsletters will also see a resurgence, with companies like Beehiiv leading the way.
Overall, creators might even realize content and social media aren’t their primary source of income and are a marketing path towards deal flow off social media, including consulting, advising, investing, and/or their products or owned and operated channels.
Finally, let’s slow down
It's a lot, isn't it? Everything in the tech world is moving at lightning speed as we step into 2024. In the midst of this rapid progression, my hope is that we all find moments to pause and deeply consider what sparks joy and meaning in our lives.
It's about connecting with what resonates personally with each of us, aligning our individual goals in a way that fuels both our personal and professional journeys. Let’s embrace this new year with intention, guiding our steps towards actions that are not just effective but also fulfilling.
Hope you enjoyed this week's edition of the Alpha newsletter!
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With gratitude,
